Five Steps to Staying Safe at the New Year's Ball Drop

It's the end of another year, and masses of people will be gathering in large crowds all across the nation to ring in the new year.

Few events match up to the thrill of the countdown, the energy of the crowd, and the expectation that accompanies ringing in a new year. The champagne toast and the kiss of a loved one are unparalleled joys of that midnight hour on New Year's Eve.

As I sit here on December 31st writing this post, I reflect on events from the past year or two and recall the fact that there are those people out there whose life purpose it is to make the rest of us suffer at their hands.

Be it the lone-wolf ISIS terrorist or the radical ideologue with delusions of grandeur, you can be fairly confident that someone somewhere is thinking about the body count that can be amassed during our late-night celebrations.

Thus it is that I bring to you these five steps to keeping yourself safe on New Year's Eve while still enjoying the festivities that attend the evening.

Step One - Know Your Surroundings

This is a simple practice of situational awareness. Wherever you choose to celebrate - be it the biggest ball drop in the nation in Times Square or the Possum Drop in Podunk, USA - make sure you know your surroundings. Are there tall buildings from which an assailant can initiate a Las Vegas-style attack from above? Are there unprotected intersections through which vehicles could drive to plow into the crowd?

Situating yourself in such a way that you can minimize the potential of being in the middle of an attack can give you the edge you need to let the thought of safety fall into the background as you enjoy the frivolity of the event.

Step Two - Observe the People Around You

Paying attention to people in your immediate area can provide much-needed intel on the possible motives of those individuals who are attending the event. New Year's Eve events aren't something people do alone.

That guy in the long coat who has shifty eyes and is holding an unseen object under his coat while just moving through the crowd by himself should be a cue to you to make space between you and him while looking for a police officer to alert. Given that the weather will be cold, bulges in the clothing are going to be hard to detect, so it's behavior that you must observe.

Gavin DeBecker wrote about that feeling you get about others in his book, The Gift of Fear. Act on those feelings if you have them.

Further, people don't generally attend New Year's Eve events carrying large bags or backpacks. Recalling that the Boston Marathon bombers carried backpacks laden with pressure cooker bombs, it makes sense to be wary of anyone carrying a large bag of any sort.

Step Three - Keep to the Periphery

Being in the middle of a crowd slows your exodus should the need to run for cover arise. Being near the edges of a crowd makes you less of a likely target, since attackers naturally want to go for the bulk of the crowd in their attempts to create the largest casualty count possible. Your being at the edges of a crowd means you are out of the target zone while simultaneously giving yourself the best and quickest opportunity to get out of harm's way.

If you can be near a safe location - a store, coffee shop, or restaurant - into which you can run quickly, make that a part of your plan. Bombs, bullets, and bumpers will have a much harder time finding you inside a building than outside on the street.

Step Four - Know Your Baseline for Noise

One of the exacerbating factors in the Las Vegas mass casualty event was that the concertgoers didn't recognize the shooting as an attack. Many people reported that the noise sounded like fireworks or some form of concert pyrotechnics. Too many realized far too late (and with deadly consequences) that they were under fire.

Know beforehand if the event will have pyrotechnics of any sort. Fireworks are not uncommon on New Year's Eve, but they are not always a part of every celebration. You should know for your own event what will be happening. If you hear a series of popping noises at 11:40 PM, you know that it's worth paying attention to.

Further, there is a distinct difference between screams of excitement or joy and screams of terror. If you hear screaming, particularly at a time at which such a ruckus doesn't make sense, move to your exit or place of cover. Delays in doing so could have unfortunate consequences.

Step Five - Have a Plan, Even If You Won't Need It

Plan your night with meticulous detail. When will you arrive? With whom will you be attending? Where will you establish yourself during the event? Where will you go if there is shooting or other threat? What do you do if you see a suspicious person? Where is your safe area if there is a rogue vehicle in the crowd? If you are separated from those with whom you arrived, what is your reunification plan? Where will you meet?

Since the body cannot go where the mind hasn't already been, it's in your best interest to consider the answers to these questions before venturing out into the crowds and the cold. Have a plan so your evening can happen with the least amount of distraction possible. Once the plan is mentally developed, your brain is free to enjoy the celebration without the distraction of 'what to do if...'

From all of us here at DefCon, have a safe and enjoyable New Year's Eve and the most prosperous of New Years.

Thoughts on Las Vegas

Unless you've been living in a cave over the last few days, you've heard about the horrific events at a concert on the Vegas Strip. In short, a lunatic with an arsenal of automatic weapons opened fire on revelers at a Jason Aldean concert. The end result (as of the time of this article) is 58 confirmed fatalities and 527 wounded. This event is officially the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history.

Before anything else is said, let me first express my condolences to those who suffered the loss of a friend or family member in this tragedy. Our thoughts are with the wounded as they recover as well as the victims and those they left behind. Nothing excuses the actions taken by this madman, and I am in no way implying that the victims of this tragedy are to blame for their experience.

This particular MCE takes on a personal tone for me. Just last month (September 2017), my wife and younger daughter attended Aldean's concert in Raleigh, NC. It was a joint birthday present for the two of them. My 14-year-old was so excited about the trip that she could hardly breathe. Meanwhile, I was in deep conversations with my wife about concert security. The venue was an outdoor amphitheater, thus increasing the potential for bad ju-ju to go down.

My wife admits that she originally believed that the likelihood for violence was low. After all, who would ever attack a country music concert in the great ol' US of A? The answer to that question is all too evident now.

Having watched numerous recordings of the events in Las Vegas, it is apparent that this particular attack brought an entirely new set of circumstances to the a normally predictable MCE. The shooter (whose name will not be mentioned here for the fact that he deserves no mention or notoriety) occupied a 32nd-floor room and used that vantage point as a platform for his attack.

The typical 'active shooter response' mantras ("Run, Hide, Fight", "Avoid, Deny, Defend", ALICE [Alert, Lockdown, Inform, Counter, Evacuate]) were rendered moot. How does one run from someone whose vantage point presents a field of vision that spans literally for miles? Where does one hide when the location of the shooter puts him above virtually every type of concealment or cover? How can one engage a shooter who is 400 meters away and 32 stories up? All of the carefully crafted messages about 'what to do in an active shooter situation' became suddenly and poignantly useless.

Thus, the deadliest mass shooting in modern history.

Having no other recourse, people did what people naturally do. They froze. They waited. And many of them died. Only after 100 rounds or so had been fired at them did they realize the necessity to run, but even then they had no idea which direction to run because the location of the shooter was undetermined.

Let's be clear here. I am not blaming the victims. Their situation was impossible and their confusion entirely justified. Under the circumstances, I'd wager that most people would do what they did (except for this guy, whose reaction is probably the most indicative of my attitude towards this shooter).

So let's take a look at this event from a couple of different angles - the political and the practical - and make some assessments based on what we see.

The Political

In the hours following the shooting, police went on record saying that there was no way they could have foreseen or prevented this attack. The shooter wasn't on anyone's radar. He had a spotless criminal record. He wasn't a religious fanatic nor was he a political activist. There were no lingering financial issues; in fact, this shooter was substantially well off. He wasn't the target of any investigations or work-related scandals. He was in a long-term dating relationship; his girlfriend allegedly sent cookies to his mother.

This shooter was exceptionally normal, which makes his rampage that much more perplexing.

As expected, the anti-gun narrative started within hours of the shootings - before the bodies had even been transported to the morgue, in fact. Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who declared that we didn't need to wax political about this event, immediately went political by railing against the NRA. Bernie Sanders and a host of other Democrats also decided that it was time to renew their call for gun control in the wake of Las Vegas.

Of course, the fact that gun control is a failed venture (as demonstrated in the failures of Detroit, Chicago, and California as gun control Utopias) is completely lost on anti-gun proponents. Despite the most well-crafted narratives of the anti-gun left, there is nothing that could have been done to stop the Vegas shooter. His weapons and ammunition were legally purchased. His movements furtive. His plan undisclosed until he pulled the trigger for the first time.

Any calls for 'stronger common sense gun laws' are just background noise to the truth of the matter.

The Practical

What lessons can be learned from the Vegas event? Several:

• Have a plan. I'm not saying that everyone at the concert failed in this regard, but enough people did to cause a casualty count that sets a new record for carnage. Knowing how to get to the nearest exit is paramount. It also pays to know where cover or concealment can be found.
• Be willing to break the rules. According to what I saw in video from the Vegas shooting, when people realized the truth of the matter - that bullets were flying - they turned and ran... across wide swaths of open ground. The Vegas strip is a long, narrow venue. The better option it to run toward the edges of the venue, not the rear. Even better would be to run toward the stage. With all of the rigging, lights, and curtains, there is a lot of interference for bullets to manage. There is also a stage under which you may be able to hide. Aldean headed backstage when the shooting started. Under the circumstances, I would suggest doing the same.
• Know what gunfire sounds like. Watch this video. Watch this one for a slower rate of fire. Watch them repeatedly. Doing so will ingrain the sound of gunfire in your ears. When you hear that sound, assume first it is gunfire. Refuse to just stand there while trying to assess (and justify) the sound. People chalked up the sound to fireworks (though none were visible) or monitor feedback. I watched a video in which a young lady with her friend stood in the line of fire for almost two minutes after a nearby concertgoer told her that the sound was feedback.
• When there's gunfire, particularly from an unknown location, the sooner you can move the better. Immobile people are called targets. Moving people are still targets, but they are a helluva lot harder to hit.
• Know your ballistics. Bullets that hit the ground can and will ricochet (against hard surfaces). The line of deflection does not equal the angle of entry. Bullets deform and break apart when they strike hard surfaces, which will cause a low exit trajectory (closer to the ground) Lying prone can easily result in additional injury.

The best safety option is to prepare your mind before you attend the event. Once the ground work for safety is in place, the only responsibility is to enjoy the show. Plan for the worst while expecting the best.

Be safe.

Pulse Night Club - One Year Later

Background

In June of 2016, a terrorist opened fire on the crowds at the Pulse Night Club in Orlando, FL. By the time his rampage came to an end, 49 people would lose their lives and another 58 suffered gunshot wounds. I watched the coverage of this event unfold on multiple media outlets. The footage was raw, intense, and horrifying.

Later that year, the City of Orlando released 911 tapes and transcripts, which I read thoroughly. The details coming from inside the club were morbidly compelling as they described individuals hiding from the shooter in bathroom stalls, closets and in plain sight under dead or dying bodies.

Nothing I read or saw on news footage could properly convey to me just how a crazed individual could accomplish such a devastating body count in mere moments. The shooter was actively using his weapons from 2:02 AM and 2:10 AM, during which time he fired more than 200 rounds from his Sig Sauer MCX rifle and Glock 17 handgun. In the months since this attack, I've wondered how the shooter could kill and injure so many people in so little time. This past summer, I figured it out to some degree.

Enlightenment

In the spring of 2017, my wife learned that she would be honored by a national writers' organization for her work. The conference would take place in Orlando. We immediately made plans to travel down for the convention. I had secondary motives, however. I didn't get to see the club the previous year (just 6 weeks after the tragedy) when I was traveling for a conference. It was just too soon after the shootings. This trip, however, my wife and I agreed that planning a visit to the club would be possible.

Thus, as we passed through Orlando on the way to our hotel, we hopped off I-4 to visit the Pulse Night Club site:

Seeing this location was moving. The wall, the murals, the signage, the memorials on the ground. The entire event leapt from surreal television coverage to disturbing reality in seconds.

When we took a few minutes to consider this club, the answer to my pressing question finally arrived. How could this rampaging lunatic commit such an atrocity in such a short time? The reply was staring me in the face.

The Pulse Night Club is not very big. In fact, it is impossibly small for a dance club.

There were more than 300 people packed into the club that night. The shooter wouldn't have needed to even aim his rifle; leveling it and pulling the trigger was all he had to do. He could have worn a blindfold and caused equal amounts of bloodshed.

Defensive Lessons (Closed Spaces & Big Crowds)

• The shooter started his rampage at 2:02 AM. The first officers entered the club at 2:08 AM. Six minutes is an eternity when someone is killing everyone around you. Having a plan to get out, even when you are shoulder-to-shoulder with hundreds of people,is an absolute must.
• Doors are fatal funnels, and the Pulse club proved that with macabre finality. There were multiple available doors in the club: two doors led to the rear stage area and the bathrooms. Four other doors led outside (two to the patio and two to the parking lot). Two doors led to bathrooms from the main dance area. Every single one of these doors is single passage, meaning that the massive crowd on the dance floor could only exit in single file. As the bottleneck at the doors slowed evacuation, the shooter only needed to pick a crowd and fire.
• The only double doors in the club were emergency exits located in the secondary stage area, beyond the most crowded area in the club and thus beyond the bottleneck. 20 people died on the dance floor, likely because the exits would not accommodate mass evacuation of the area.
• This tragedy could have happened in any crowded auditorium. The Manchester bomber took advantage of a similarly crowded space to kill 22 innocent attendees at a concert. Taking particular precautions in a densely populated area can save lives, including staging yourself near an exit and using secondary exits as much as possible when evacuation is necessary.
• Recognize the situation. When every exit is bottlenecked and the likelihood of taking fire becomes probable, it is then time to turn the tables and either seek cover/concealment or move aggressively toward the shooter. Aggressing the attacker may seem counter-intuitive, but here's the reality: you can die with your back to the shooter as you try to run, or you can go after the threat in an attempt to break his attack cycle. The Pulse shooter wasn't expecting resistance, and he never received it. When all other options are likely to result in grave injury (or death), it is time to work offense instead of defense.

Seeing the Pulse Nightclub up close and in person gave me a new perspective on this tragedy. I am in no way attempting to impugn the actions of the attendees at the club that evening; instead, I want to look at the event in retrospect to know what can be done in the future to minimize the casualty count.

Be safe.

Educators for Gun Sense - Myth vs Reality

A new movement, called Educators for Gun Sense, has found a place in anti-firearms circles. While I embrace the message generally proposed by this organization (one of safe learning spaces free from hostile actors with guns), there are fundamental logical flaws extant in their platform. Below is the description of the intent of the movement from their own website (in italics). A link to their petition is at the bottom of this post. Because I am who I am, I feel compelled to show why these people are living in La-La Land where rainbows and unicorns dot the fairy-tale landscape. My comments are in bold.

Let me preface the following criticism of Everytown with a clarifying statement: America's schools are incredibly safe places as far as gun violence is concerned. I point out (and link to) a specific statistic in my commentary below that speaks to that truth, but invariably someone will accuse me of hinting that schools aren't safe places to work and learn. School shootings, particularly those that make national news, are the rare exception to the rule. Millions of children go to school every day, and virtually every day all of them return home without experiencing gun violence. Few places are safer than America's classrooms, but that doesn't relieve educators of their responsibility to plan for worst case scenarios, hence the criticism below.

**********************************************************

We are America’s educators, the professionals who have devoted our lives to teaching the country’s next generation.
Indeed you are, but you do not speak for ALL educators.

Our job is to enrich the intellectual fabric of America. We teach your children to read their first words. We nurture the interests of budding scientists, philosophers, engineers and artists. We support scholars and colleagues as they strive to break new ground in academic fields of study. And 99.9% of the time in classrooms all across the United States, that is exactly what happens.
We became educators to foster learning, creativity, discovery and intellectual freedom in safe, productive environments. We did not--and do not--intend to do our jobs on schools and campuses where teachers, students or the public can carry a gun. But you do your jobs in the presence of firearms every day without knowing it. Contrary to the delusion under which you live your lives, people come onto your campus every day with firearms. Some of them are police officers. Some of them are parents who are carrying a concealed firearm. And yes, some of them are students who, under the constant threat of bullying, feel as though their only legitimate protection from harm is to have a firearm in their backpacks.
When I was a teaching intern in 1991, a student who sat front and center in my 4th period class was arrested for having a handgun on campus. We were informed (via the media, not the school) that said student had been carrying the weapon to school for 2 weeks prior to being discovered with it. That means the student sat with his gun a mere 4 feet away from me for most of a 60-minute class period. 

You are surrounded by firearms - either in your school or in the homes immediately adjacent to your school - on a regular basis without incident. (And I'm not excusing students who break the law by carrying weapons to school, so don't write nasty emails to me.)
We are deeply concerned with the gun violence that plagues the nation, and we believe that our country should be working toward solving this problem and saving lives. But forcing our schools and campuses to allow guns is not part of the solution. We will not stand for it. I, too, am deeply concerned about gun violence. However, contrary to your statement, our country IS working toward solving this problem. You just don't like the solution that is being proposed and adopted in many corners of the country. From what I read on your site, you believe that ANY person with a gun is a threat. You couldn't be more wrong. According to a number of sources, there are about 300 million guns in this country. On any given day, the chance that you will be caught in a school shooting is approximately 1 in 54,000. If legal gun owners were an issue, the carnage they create would fill your news channels 24/7/365. What you construe as 'solving the problem' is more background checks, mag cap restrictions, and outright bans on certain 'scary' weapons like AR-15s. You want government to protect you with legislative acts. Government interventions aren't solutions; they are hindrances, particularly in light of the fact that someone who carries a weapon onto campus and opens fire has already violated a plethora of extant laws. Funny thing about criminals: they don't give a hoot about laws. We reject a vision of America where teachers do double duty as armed guards, and where students bring a loaded gun to a lecture hall as casually as they might bring a laptop. I ask the following question frequently and seldom get a lucid answer: what is your plan should the unthinkable occur? Imagine this scenario: you are blissfully lecturing a room full of young minds when a lunatic with a small arsenal casually strides into your classroom and starts shooting. As he opens fire on you and your students, what is your plan? In the immediacy of that moment, what are you going to do? Are you going to plead for your life? Run? Tell the intruder that your classroom is a gun-free zone? Do tell.
Let me help you understand what is going to happen. You are going to the hospital at best and to the morgue at worst. And several of your students are going to join you at one of those two locations. Same scenario, but a trained concealed handgun carrier is sitting near the classroom door and sees the threat coming in. As the intruder raises his weapon in your direction, the concealed carrier draws her Glock and drains half of a 17-round mag into the guy. What will you do then? Again, let me help. You are going to go home and hug your loved ones.

Maybe your fear resides in the idea that a student will knock a teacher out, steal his/her gun, and open fire on his classmates. Granted this is a possibility (a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless), but it is still preferable to a student coming from home with a backpack full of loaded mags and multiple weapons. Don't forget that Mrs. Jones or Mr. Williams in the classrooms next door just might be carrying their own weapons and will be able to act as first responders to our rogue student's rampage. It's still better than waiting 5-10 minutes for police to arrive. As educators, we are exceptionally good at distinguishing fact from fiction. We see through the fantasy, peddled by the gun lobby, that we would somehow be safer if our colleagues, students, or visitors were allowed to sit in our classrooms, attend tailgates and parties or roam our campuses while armed. Obviously you are not "exceptionally good at distinguishing fact from fiction." Either that, or you prefer to dwell in the land of fiction where you get to make up your own set of facts. Gun free zones are simply high-body count zones or low-resistance zones to a lunatic with a gun who demonstrates little proclivity for obedience to the law.
We vow to vigorously fight any legislation that would allow civilians to bring guns into America’s primary schools, secondary schools and institutions of higher education. We resolve to speak out against attempts to normalize the presence of guns in places of learning. And we pledge to stand up for the safety of American educational spaces. If you were truly committed to campus safety, you would embrace the one thing that scares the hell out of a bad guy with a gun - and that is the presence of a legal gun owner who wisely carries her/his weapon.
If you've read all of this and still want to sign the Everytown pledge for Educators for Gun Sense, here is the link.